Neither a Buyer Nor a Seller Be

Shakespeare, via the character Polonius in Hamlet, counsels that it is best to “neither a borrower nor a lender be.” In an ideal world, that may have been good advice. And a royal such as Prince Hamlet had resources that probably would have let him follow that advice. For the rest of us, borrowing and lending are pretty much as inescapable as death and taxes.

But buying and selling stocks is another matter. We can choose when to get in the market, and when to take gains (or losses) and sit out the turmoil. I heard a debate on CNBC this week about whether now’s the time to “buy on the dip or sell on the blip.”

As I write this, Wednesday Nov. 28, the Dow is up more than 2%, as are other major indices. If I were taking action today, I’d be a sell on the blip guy. Market participants expect continued volatility in the equity market, and volatility tends to undermine confidence. The Fed is likely to continue raising interest rates. (Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, speaking in New York, said the “economy is now close to both of those objectives” — meaning low inflation and full employment.)

Markets reacted positively to Mr. Powell’s remarks, which were interpreted as foreshadowing a less aggressive approach to raising interest rates than some had feared. But Mr. Powell sounded some cautionary notes in his speech as well, noting that the Fed is closely following the growth in corporate debt at many corporations.

Mr. Powell reassured markets that policy makers should try to prepare in advance for adversity, and he argued that the financial system is stronger than it was before the financial crisis that spurred the Great Recession.

“Systemic stability risks can take root and blossom in good times,” he noted.

One concern today is not so much the overall growth of corporate debt, but where that growth is concentrated, he said.

“Firms with high leverage and interest burdens have been increasing their debt burdens the most,” he said.

 

 

 

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