Pick of the Week: Gannett

At the risk of chasing a once impeccable stock down, I’ve just added Gannett, publisher of USA Today, to my portfolio.

I’m old enough to remember when USA Today was the fresh face among major daily newspapers. In those days I did a lot of business travel, and there was a profound pleasure in opening a hotel room door and finding a copy at your footstep. The stories were breezy and reliable, perfect for the business traveler on the go.

So is this the sentimental pick of an old newspaperman (I spent more than 20 years working mostly on trade journals, and I spent some time back in the 1980s in the news room of small Midwestern daily)? Maybe. But take a look at the numbers before shrugging off my pick.

The company, which in addition to its USA Today franchise publishes a bunch of significant regional newspapers and also owns digital marketing assets, saw a significant drop (about 5%) in operating revenue in the third quarter. And the company trimmed its revenue outlook for the year.

All newspapers are struggling with the decline of print publishing and print advertising as they try to navigate the crossing toward a digital news environment. Gannett’s “digital revenue” rose 8% year-over-year and now accounts for 37% of total revenue. That doesn’t exactly make it a digital company, but it is progress toward a digitally driven business model.

The company also posted digital only subscriber growth of 48% year-over-year.

But here’s what’s really to like. The shares are beaten down so much that the dividend yield is north of 6%. And at roughly $18 million quarterly, the dividend payment seems manageable if the company can stem the declines in print revenue while revving up digital revenue streams. (Not everyone is so sanguine. Argus Research put out a note warning that management’s focus on acquisitions, coupled with falling free cash flow, could put the dividend at risk.)

Gannett’s stock took a hit on Wednesday, Dec. 5, when the company announced that CEO Robert J. Dickey will step down next year. It recovered a bit the following day.

I haven’t followed the company or Mr. Dickey long enough to evaluate whether this good or bad news. But my instinct tells me that having a 29-year company veteran at the helm during a time of rapid restructuring and repositioning might not be advantageous. Perhaps new and fresher eyes will see where Gannett can grow and prosper in a changing media landscape.

In the meantime, I’m hopeful that the stock’s price will appreciate, in part to reflect the value of its dividend. Currently, the market seems to be treating Gannett like a company who’s growth prospects are weak and dividend payout rate at risk. I’m willing to take the other side of that bet.

Leave a comment