Category: Uncategorized

Revisiting the Clearway Pick

Am I kicking myself for adding Clearway Energy to my portfolio late last September? Yes, indeed. And I shedding it now that about 20% of its value has evaporated due to concerns about how the bankruptcy of Clearway customer PG&E will affect Clearway’s bottom line? 

Nope. I’m adding more shares to my portfolio now that the price is down.

Hindsight is always 20/20, of course. So it’s easy to sit here today and feel like a fool, realizing how much more my money would have purchased if I’d only waited a couple of months. To be honest, I didn’t realize how big a client PG&E was for Clearway’s renewable energy power business. And I don’t think anyone foresaw a potential bankruptcy for the giant California utility company at that time. And apparently the rest of the market didn’t see the liability either, or it would have been priced into the stock price late last year.

But after listening to management explain the situation on a conference call (it’s archived on Clearway Energy’s website), I’m confident that the possible inability of PG&E to pay all it owes to Clearway isn’t going to sink the company. I’m also confident that major stakeholder and controlling owner Global Infrastructure Partners plans to stand by Clearway and help the company persevere in this period of uncertainty.

Management reduced the dividend by about a third to 20 cents per share in the first quarter. But hey, the previous dividend amounted to nearly a 10% payout rate, so we’re still looking at a dividend yield of around 6% based on the company’s 2/15 share price. 

A key question is whether or not the 20 cent per share is sustainable. Management made it clear that there is still uncertainty about the extent to which PG&E’s bankruptcy will have on Clearway’s balance sheet, but I got the impression that they are optimistic and committed to paying a dividend. 

A more cautious investor might wait until Clearway’s year end and fourth quarter results are released on February 28, which should provide a little more guidance on the company’s outlook. But me? I’m going ahead and adding a few shares now in anticipation of sunnier days ahead for Clearway.

Going Across the Pond

How about a Fund for a Change?

Me, I’m keen on managing my own portfolio of individual stocks. And when I look at my rollover IRA and my personal portfolios, I think I’ve down well relative to the major indices over the years.

But that doesn’t mean I disrespect portfolio managers and financial advisors. Large investment firms have technological and research capacities that an individual investor like me cannot match. (But that doesn’t mean you should turn your money over to investment managers — there’s no rule against capitalizing on their research and expertise. If I find a fund that impresses me, I look over their top holdings to get ideas for what stocks I might want to consider adding to my portfolio.)

All that said, income-motivated investors shouldn’t forget that mutual funds and exchange-traded funds are an option. And there are a lot of dividend paying funds out there. 

So, if I were to take a stake in a fund today, what might I choose? 

An exchange traded Vanguard Europe fund, VGK is what I most recently added to my retirement portfolio. At the end of last week, VGK was trading at just under $52 a share and sported a distribution yield of almost 4%. 

Because of weakness in European stocks, the fund is down almost 15% year-over-year, which I think represents a buying opportunity.

The company focuses on stocks from developed European countries of all capitalization sizes. Companies from the United Kingdom, France and Germany represent the largest share of VGK’s holdings. 

And with a net expense ratio of just .09%, fees aren’t going to eat up too much of the returns. I also find the turnover ratio of just 6% reassuring.

I don’t have a lot of international exposure in my combined portfolio, so I’ve been adding some in my IRA recently, mostly through funds since I don’t feel as comfortable picking international stocks as I do picking U.S. names. And while I’m skeptical of index funds, numbers don’t lie. When I look at the funds I have a stake in, more often than not they don’t measure up to the performance of an index fund. For this I’m paying sometimes 100 basis points or more? If a managed fund is consistently falling behind index funds, I’m moving my money out of the managed fund.

One caveat: a more cautious investor might take their time before moving into a European stock fund, especially given the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. I tend to move into new stocks and funds slowly, so I’ll have the chance to pick up more VGK later if the price does fall during a messy Brexit process.

Pick of the Week: SunTrust Banks

What’s not to like at SunTrust? The stock sports a 4% dividend yield, is trading at a significant discount (just over $53 per share on Friday, 1/4) relative to the average analyst’s 52-week price target of 73, and the the regional banking company’s business is concentrated in a growing part of the country, the southeast and mid-Atlantic regions. 

Over the past 12 months, the stock is down about 18%. That creates an attractive entry point for investors looking for a dividend paying stock in the financial sector.

Full disclosure: I haven’t bought in yet (still have to keep some powder dry), but I’ve been tracking SunTrust for a while, and if I were to buy a new stock today, SunTrust would be it. 

SunTrust does a good job of passing on earnings to shareholders. According to a recent presentation, the company passed 89% of net income to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in 2017. The payout ratio has been steadily growing since the financial crisis ended. EPS growth has been steady as well.

And the company has made significant investments in technology to improve operational efficiency and customer self-service opportunities. 

Harkening back to my days as a reporter and editor for trade publications that went out to the real estate finance and banking industries, I recall that SunTrust consistently fared well on consumer surveys of customer service in the mortgage lending space. Consumers often give high ranks for customer service, ironically, to mortgage servicers that they don’t have to interact with much. That often is a sign that the lender has strong self service and online functionality. The best mortgage lender is often the one who just automatically deducts your payment each month, makes sure insurance and property taxes are paid on time, and doesn’t bother the customer too much.

That bodes well for operational efficiency as well as popularity with customers.

“Buy and Homework”

That’s a refrain that Jim Cramer has been emphasizing on his CNBC show tonight. Not buy and hold, but “buy and homework.”

It’s a lesson I should have taken to heart much easier. Don’t get me wrong, looking at the big picture my portfolio has done pretty well. More years than not I’ve done better than the broad market. But I’ve also held onto some stinkers when I should have known better, and sitting down and really delving into quarterly reports and conference calls probably would have spurred me to hit the sell button before watching my bad stocks fall even further (I’m thinking of you, GE).

Sometimes, I even feel that I’ve become sort of emotionally attached to stocks that have been good to me in the past, and so I hold on even after the investing thesis that I bought into starts to erode on the basis of changing market conditions or management strategies. “The market is a harsh mistress,” Jim Cramer says. He’s got a good point.

I’m a big proponent of do-it-yourself investing, if you have the time and aptitude for researching companies and markets. I’m usually good at doing the upfront research before I take a stake in a new company. But homework doesn’t end after the first class session. Where I’ve sometimes fallen short is continuing to track a company’s results and prospects after I’ve been in it for a while. Now I realize that homework is forever.