Category: Uncategorized

Pick of the Week: Duke Energy

Duke Energy has been in my portfolio for many years, and it’s served me well. While a part of me wants to wait on the sidelines with utilities, in case rising interest rates push valuations down and make the stocks cheaper, if I were buying this week I’d add to my Duke shares.

What do I like most about Duke? Dividend yield, of course. At roughly 4.6%, it’s in the high range of yields among its utility industry peers. It’s southeastern U.S. market has benefited from strong economic and population growth, and looks poised to enjoy more growth. The P/E ratio of 19 looks reasonable in today’s market. 

On August 2, the company reported second quarter earnings that, while down from the year earlier period, didn’t spook the market. The company reaffirmed its guidance for full year 2018 earnings and attributed most of the second quarter decline to tax issues and one time issues such as storm costs and higher depreciation and amortization expense. (The stock finished fractionally lower on the day earnings were released. It edged back up to $81.55 on June 3.)

And hey, the company has been paying dividends for 92 years and has increased its dividend annually every year since 2007. Sounds like a pretty good track record to me.

This Week’s Pick: Senior Housing Properties Trust

This week my stock pick is Senior Housing Properties Trust. It’s a stock I’m well familiar with – it’s been in my portfolio for more than a decade. I’ve gradually added shares over time.

And, from the perspective of unrealized gains and losses, it’s been a losing venture. But at the current share price, you can benefit from my early over eagerness and get your position at what I think is a bargain.

Am I a glutton for punishment? The stock closed at $17.24 on the July 27, closer to a 52-week low than a 52-week high. Share prices are down about 10% year-to-date. I see a buying opportunity. But if you prefer a more cautious approach, the company’s next quarterly earnings release comes out August 7. Why not wait and take a look at my thesis after digesting the latest financials?

(In the first quarter, funds from operations dipped slightly, to $107.2 million from $108.4 million in the year earlier period. Most of the FFO is paid out as dividends.)

The company says it owns $8.9 billion of senior living and health care and medical office real estate, consisting of 444 properties in 42 states and the District of Columbia.

SNH is not without risks. The company’s debt load, while manageable in my view, is something to keep an eye on – especially in a rising interest rate environment. SNH has $3.64 billion in long-term debt, about 52% of total capital.

Questions have been raised about the relationship between SNH and the the RMR Group, which manages its properties. A few years ago, SNH and three other REITS managed by RMR took action to make sure their interests were aligned with RMR’s. The REITs acquired a nearly 50% interest in RMR. The deal also locked in long-term management contracts with the company. Investors seemed unmoved by the action, perhaps thinking it cemented the potential conflict in place rather than freeing SNH from RMR’s influence.

So what has me wanting to add shares of SNH to my portfolio? The 9% dividend yield. It’s hard to find companies paying that high a dividend that haven’t had to cut their payout. SNH has been consistently paying a high single digit yield for years.

To be sure, buying SNH is not a dividend growth strategy. The dividend hasn’t been raised for years and the company hasn’t indicated any plans to do so soon. But at 9%? I’ll take that yield right now, thank you very much.

Pick of the Week: UBS

In a nutshell, the thing I like best about UBS among financial sector stocks is the yield. At 4.4%, it ranks among the higher yields coming from a diversified, international banking institution.

Some time ago, I spoke with a UBS financial advisor, with whom I’ve done business, who bemoaned the fact that UBS’s stock is being treated more like an investment banking firm than an asset management firm. He hopes that as the market appreciates UBS’s asset management strengths, the stock price will go up to reflect the kind of valuations that asset managers like BlackRock enjoy.

For the moment, I’m happy to take advantage of what I believe is a depressed price for UBS.

Did I jump the gun on UBS? We’ll know better when the company reports earnings on July 24. (I tend to go into new stocks in small steps, adding to my stake over time if a good investment thesis holds up.) The stock price is down 16% year-to-date, and I think it’s at an attractive buying point. (Admittedly, I’ve made the mistake of chasing stocks down before. GE is in my portfolio.)

Still, I think UBS’s prospects warrant a higher valuation than its current share price would indicate, and why not scoop it up for the 4.4% yield? For my portfolio, its international exposure is a plus. (seven of my other stocks are US based companies, and the other international stock is a Canadian firm.)

The median price target among equity analysts who cover UBS is $20. At around $15 a share, it looks like a bargain to me. European based rivals Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank don’t offer dividend yields that rival UBS’s.

I always take a look at a stock’s short selling ratio when I’m in a buying mood. At the end of June, UBS had a pretty miniscule .4% short interest.

For a more skeptical take on UBS’s current investment appeal, see this Bloomberg article.

Musings on Market Timing

As is often the case, I find myself tinkering with my portfolio of dividend stocks, buying a bit of this and selling a bit of that. Since I enjoy buying more than selling, I get a little nervous thinking about what impact rising rates will have on the stocks I’m buying today.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told congress that economic growth remains “solid,” and he said the Fed “believes that – for now – the best way forward is to keep gradually raising” interest rates. Higher rates are already dampening the appeal of high dividend stocks. So far this week, the market cap of my little portfolio has slipped a bit even as the overall market has edged up.

That said, I think market timing is a fool’s errand, so I plow ahead with my general strategy of trying to grow my portfolio while maintaining a high dividend yield.

This week, I’m decided to add a financial services firm to my portfolio, adding a sector not covered by my previous-eight stock portfolio. Because I keep stakes in such a small number of firms, I want to make sure I maintain sector diversification. Generally, I own only one stock in any given market sector.

Tune in Friday after the close (which I’m planning to make the publication schedule for my weekly dividend pick) to find out which stock I picked. Got any thoughts? Among the firms I’ve considered are IVZ, UBS, WFC, and C. Not that I’ve made any final pick yet, so other candidates could enter the ring between now and the end of the week.