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Pesky Inflation Worries

Have I been worrying too much about rising inflation? Given that I started worrying that higher inflation was poised to put downward pressure on my dividend paying stock portfolio about a decade ago, the obvious answer is yes. Only this time, my timing may not be off.

So far the stock market in general, dividend paying value stocks included, has continued its upward climb. But while that makes it fun to check in on the value of my portfolio, when I look at the broad stock market indices I start to feel a little vertigo. These are levels that leave me thinking about “irrational exuberance.”

This Barron’s article has an interesting take on what inflation could mean for the equity market. The short version: when measured against corporate profits among the S&P 500, inflation now exceeds the earnings available to shareholders. That creates a negative return scenario, not taking into account the possible growth of stock prices. In the past, when the “real yield” earnings return measured against inflation has turned negative, it has not been a good omen for future stock price performance.

And the S&P 500 “earnings yield” is quite a bit higher than the index’s dividend payout rate, because of course companies don’t typically pay out all their available earnings to investors. So achieving a dividend yield that keeps pace with inflation becomes even more difficult in a rising inflation environment.

Nonetheless, I remain keen on a few of the dividend payers in my portfolio and am edging toward adding to my holdings of one or more. Right now, AT&T looks attractive, even as the dust settles from the news that the company will spin off its entertainment offerings and reduce its dividend by half. I still look at it as an attractive buying opportunity at the current share price of around $29 per share. Still, I have to admit I haven’t pulled the trigger yet. Those pesky inflation worries have me on the sidelines again.

Land vs Airwaves

For the last several months, I’ve largely stepped back from stock trading in order to assemble the funds needed to purchase a condo. And while my divestment of a big chunk of my holdings may have been a little premature (most of my stocks have continued to rise in recent months), at least I got my dream apartment, with more space than this long-time New Yorker is accustomed to and wonderful views of the Mississippi River from my perch on the edge of Downtown Minneapolis.

But enough about me. Now that I’m back thinking about my portfolio, I’ve been tempted to add to two of my holdings, ViacomCBS (VIAC) and Kimco Realty (KIM). ViacomCBS has been good to me, too good. When the stock ran up to $100 per share, I should have forgotten about my dividend focus and sold it for the capital gain. But like a good buy-and-hold investor, or one without foresight of what was to come, I held on. Now that the stock has fallen to around $40 a share, I’m luck enough still to have gains, but my position in VIAC is one of the smallest in my portfolio.

Kimco also has been good to me. I owned it a number of years back, sold off all my holdings at a profit at a time when I thought REITs were taking up too much of my portfolio and I needed to add some technology weight to my portfolio, which proved fortuitous. But recently I’ve taken up a small position in Kimco again. It’s my smallest holding, so just from a portfolio balancing standpoint I may error on the side of adding some more Kimco before ViacomCBS.

Decisions have yet to be made, however. The degree of short interest in ViacomCBS has given me pause. And Kimco’s merger with Weingarten Realty is a question mark at this point. From what I’ve read, the merger sounds like a good deal for Kimco shareholders. But then, mergers and acquisitions always sound good in a company’s announcement of them. And to be frank, neither stock is getting a lot of love from analysts right now. Both release earnings within the next couple of weeks, so I may wait to see how much light those releases shed on the firms’ future prospects.

And, adding to my indecision is a temptation to take on shares of another technology firm. More on that technology play later after I do some additional research, but if I do go in this decision it will be an aberration from my dividend focused investing practice.

A Market Well Played

I’ve been trimming my holdings for most of this year, feeling somewhat jittery about stock valuations. And on a day like today, with a big market sell off underway, I’m feeling pretty good about that choice.

But in truth, the largest motive for my stock sales and hoarding of cash in recent months has been my intention to make a trade up condominium purchase. (I’ve never been much of a believer in market timing, so I probably would see my portfolio dipping even more if I weren’t piling up cash for a potential home purchase.)

Thus, I haven’t had many stock picks to share lately, because I haven’t been in my usual mind frame of scouring the market for income oriented equity opportunities.

But I am pleased with my recent choices, for the most part. Clearway Energy (CWEN) is now one of my largest holdings and still pays a healthy dividend. Would I add shares at the current price? It doesn’t make sense to me from a portfolio diversification standpoint, but if you are adding a new stock that I didn’t already have, I’d still recommend it.

The most recent new stock I added was Viacom/CBS. It’s a small stake and I think the valuation reflects speculation that it could be an acquisition target, but so far the value is holding up and the current dividend yield is very attractive. Still, the short sale ratio makes me a bit nervous.

My tech stocks — Microsoft, Intel and Cisco — have pulled back in the current sell off. I’d be tempted to add shares of Intel and Cisco if I were in a buying position. And while I’d love to own more Microsoft, I think it remains a pricy stock today, especially given its lower dividend yield.

With the market pulling back, I may start to see some tempting stock picks in the months ahead.

Late Summer Greetings and Musings

I haven’t been posting much on this investment blog lately, because I haven’t been doing much buying and selling in the market lately. Call it a pandemic malaise, but it’s been a quiet summer for my portfolio.

I’ve nibbled up a few more shares of Clearway Energy (CWEN), and have been pleased to see some share price appreciation validating my decision. I’ve also strategically scooped up some more Wells Fargo (WFC) shares, trying to buy on the dip. This idea, so far, hasn’t panned out as well, as WFC (along with most other financial stocks) continued to drift down in value. I was pleased to see my shares of UPS increase dramatically in value as increased online buying boosted the companies delivery business — so pleased, in fact, that I sold my entire stake in UPS. I’m still nervous about the market overall heading into what may be a second wave of coronavirus infections this fall. As such, I’ll sit on the sidelines before deciding where and when to redeploy my capital.

An article in Barron’s got me thinking about ViacomCBS. The article, by Andrew Bary, called VIAC a potential “cheap content play.” I love CBS and the other media and entertainment brands owned by the company. I love the dividend yield, currently at about 3.6%, is awfully tempting. On the other hand, the short sales ratio remained high as of July, so not everyone is betting on a bright future. The company also could be sold, presumably at a premium to current share values, according to Barron’s.

At the moment, I’m tempted by VIAC. And when I’m tempting, I often move forward in little baby investor steps, taking a small position and adding to it if the investment thesis holds up in the months ahead.